Keywords: Multistage game, War of attrition, Bayesian updating, β-distribution,
Equilibrium, Non-homogeneous random walk, Gambler’s ruin problem, Optimal stopping
Publications
Scientific publications
Mazalov V., Ivashko A.
War of attrition and random walks
// Annals of Operations Research. 2026.
The article presents a game-theoretic model of a multistage game with imperfect information
War of Attrition, first investigated by John Maynard Smith, 1974. In this model, players
(animals) fight for a resource (territory, sphere of influence, etc.), but are not aware of the
adversary’s real capacity and can evaluate it after each stage of the fight. The fight consists
of repeated iterations of one type of interaction. We suggest a model of the adaptive behavior
of players based on dynamic programming and an evaluation method based on Bayesian
updating. Thereby, we study the properties of non-homogeneous random walks in the space
of parameters that represent the current number of the player’s wins and losses. The optimal
rule for stopping the fight is determined for each player. The results of numerical experiments
are reported.
War of Attrition, first investigated by John Maynard Smith, 1974. In this model, players
(animals) fight for a resource (territory, sphere of influence, etc.), but are not aware of the
adversary’s real capacity and can evaluate it after each stage of the fight. The fight consists
of repeated iterations of one type of interaction. We suggest a model of the adaptive behavior
of players based on dynamic programming and an evaluation method based on Bayesian
updating. Thereby, we study the properties of non-homogeneous random walks in the space
of parameters that represent the current number of the player’s wins and losses. The optimal
rule for stopping the fight is determined for each player. The results of numerical experiments
are reported.
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Last modified: September 15, 2026



