Scientific publications

An analysis of the observations carried out by the Karelian Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (CHM) in 1953–2024 in the Petrozavodsk, Kondopozhskaya, and Bolshaya Bays of the Gulf of Povenets, Lake Onego, revealed patterns in the response of ice phenology and surface water temperature in the inshore zone to climate change. The analysis of air temperature data indicates persistent, stable warming of the regional climate in the lake basin throughout the year. It was found that there was a statistically significant trend in the ice-on dates of all lakes toward later dates at a rate of +2.3–3.0 days/10 years, and the ice-off dates toward earlier dates at a rate of –1.9–2.6 days/10 years. The ice duration has decreased by 35 days. Patterns of surface water temperature changes in the bays were analyzed. It was determined that the 70 year linear trend of the average water temperature in June-October was 0.34 °C/10 years in Petrozavodsk Bay, 0.47 °C/10 years in Kondopozhskaya Bay, and 0.37 °C/10 years in Bolshaya Bay. As a result of the increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water, the stratification period (water temperature of > 4 °С) in the bays increased by 20–30 days, and the duration of the period with water temperatures > 10 °С (“biological summer”) increased by 30–40 days.