V. Kornikov, A. Pepelyshev, A. Zhigljavsky.
Statistical forecasting of Earth temperature records
// Труды КарНЦ РАН. No 4. Сер. Математическое моделирование и информационные технологии. 2014. C. 155-161
В.В. Корников, A.H. Пепелышев, А.А. Жиглявский. Статистический прогноз глобальной температуры Земли 2014. C. 155-161
Keywords: Singular Spectrum Analysis, forecasting.
In this paper, we continue the research started in . We apply the so-called Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to forecast the temperature records taken from http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/, the web-site of the National Space Science and Technology Center, USA, NASA. We compare the forecasts we made three years ago and published in  with the temperatures actually recorded. By doing so we demonstrate that our forecasts were quite accurate. We then forecast the temperatures for the next several years and show that the forecasts are not very different from the ones we made earlier: according to our forecasts, the Earth temperatures are neither increasing nor decreasing and will continue to be volatile.