Scientific publications

В.В. Захаров, С.М. Ндиайе.

Две эпидемиологические модели малярии и их практическое применение

// Математическая Теория Игр и ее Приложения, т. 15, в. 2. 2023. C. 33-52

Serigne Modou Ndiaye, Victor V. Zakharov. Two epidemic models of malaria and their practical applications // Mathematical game theory and applications. Vol 15. No 2. 2023. Pp. 33-52

Keywords: epidemic model of malaria, SIR model, prediction of active cases of the disease, epidemic balance model, dynamic balance principle, CIR model

Based on data on the annual incidence of malaria in Senegal in the period from 2000 to 2021, the article demonstrates the possibilities of predicting the annual dynamics of the epidemic using the SIR model and the CIR model. A modified SIR model with constant coefficients is constructed, and a description of the CIR balance model with stochastic parameters is given. The question of the accuracy of forecasting the annual statistical indicators of the epidemic when using these models is investigated. As numerical experiments show, the average error in predicting the annual number of sick people compared to actual statistical data when using the SIR model is quite large, while the CIR model generates more accurate forecasts when compared.

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Last modified: July 14, 2023